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Minyor Pernik vs Chavdar Etropole

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2023/2024
Sat, Apr 6, 2024
3 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Minyor Pernik host Chavdar Etropole in the Third League - South-West 2023/2024. Minyor Pernik are expected to control this from the start. Minyor Pernik have averaged 1.36 scored and 1.32 conceded recently, against Chavdar Etropole's 0.41 scored and 2.76 conceded. Head-to-head, Minyor Pernik have won 3 to Chavdar Etropole's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2024, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 2.19 vs 1.00, favoring Minyor Pernik. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Minyor Pernik
15%
Draws
28%
Chavdar Etropole
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Minyor Pernik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Minyor Pernik come out ahead of Chavdar Etropole on wins alone.
  • Model gives Minyor Pernik a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Third League - South-West 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Minyor Pernik Clean Sheet 20%
Chavdar Etropole Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Minyor Pernik Chavdar Etropole
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 3
Draws 4 1
Losses 14 25
Goals Scored 1.36 0.41
Goals Conceded 1.32 2.76
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2024 Third League - South-West
Minyor Pernik vs Chavdar Etropole
3:0
Sep 16, 2023 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Minyor Pernik
0:1
Mar 18, 2020 Third League - South-West
Minyor Pernik vs Chavdar Etropole
0:0
Aug 31, 2019 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Minyor Pernik
1:1
Mar 2, 2019 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Minyor Pernik
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Minyor Pernik 85 / 100
Chavdar Etropole 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Minyor Pernik Chavdar Etropole

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Minyor Pernik Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chavdar Etropole let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Minyor Pernik scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Minyor Pernik remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Chavdar Etropole's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Minyor Pernik VS Chavdar Etropole
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Minyor Pernik

(Home)
04 Oct
Minyor Pernik
1 : 2
Beroe
26 Sept
Botev Ihtiman
0 : 2
Minyor Pernik
19 Sept
Minyor Pernik
2 : 0
Kyustendil
12 Sept
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 2
Minyor Pernik
05 Sept
Minyor Pernik
5 : 2
Strumska Slava
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Chavdar Etropole

(Away)
03 Oct
Chavdar Etropole
2 : 1
Slivnishki Geroy
26 Sept
Septemvri Sofia 2
0 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
19 Sept
Chavdar Etropole
1 : 3
Levski Sofia II
12 Sept
Slavia Sofia 2
4 : 0
Chavdar Etropole
05 Sept
Chavdar Etropole
1 : 4
Botev Ihtiman
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Minyor Pernik 38 31 4 3 78:29 97
2 CSKA Sofia II 38 25 5 8 68:39 80
3 Botev Ihtiman 38 20 7 11 70:52 67
4 Vihren 38 20 6 12 66:46 66
5 Slivnishki Geroy 38 16 10 12 52:47 58
6 Levski Sofia II 38 16 8 14 61:51 56
7 Rilski Sportist 38 16 4 18 58:61 52
8 Balkan Botevgrad 38 13 11 14 63:62 50
9 CSKA 1948 Sofia III 38 14 7 17 57:55 49
10 Bansko 38 13 9 16 50:54 48
11 Septemvri Sofia 2 38 13 9 16 50:46 48
12 Bistritsa 38 12 11 15 30:35 47
13 Kyustendil 38 12 10 16 53:54 46
14 Slavia Sofia 2 38 13 7 18 54:64 46
15 Oborishte Panagyurishte 38 13 7 18 58:75 46
16 Septemvri Simitli 38 10 15 13 48:50 45
17 Pirin Razlog 38 13 6 19 38:55 45
18 Kostinbrod 38 11 10 17 40:63 43
19 Hebar 2 38 9 6 23 35:63 33
20 Chavdar Etropole 38 13 2 23 46:74 41
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