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Miramar vs Auckland City

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2025 David Farrington Park, Wellington
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Bueno M.
(Penalty)
31' Event
Ettema T.
51' Event
Fenton L.

AI Match Summary

Miramar in this National League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Miramar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Miramar
15%
Draws
58%
Auckland City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Auckland City lately — more wins on the board than Miramar.
  • Model gives Auckland City a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • History favors Miramar here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Miramar Clean Sheet 10%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Miramar Auckland City
Matches Played 29 44
Wins 12 30
Draws 3 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 2.03 1.95
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 National League
Miramar vs Auckland City
3:0
Nov 20, 2022 National League
Auckland City vs Miramar
2:1
Jul 31, 2021 Chatham Cup
Miramar vs Auckland City
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Miramar Compare

Top Goalscorer Ettema T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fenton L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Auckland City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Miramar 18 / 100
Auckland City 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Miramar Auckland City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Miramar found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Auckland City conceded in 68% of 44 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Solid form: Miramar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Miramar VS Auckland City
1.75 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Miramar

(Home)
03 Oct
Miramar
2 : 1
Auckland FC 2
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3
Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
Page 1 of 6

Auckland City

(Away)
03 Oct
Eastern Suburbs
2 : 4
Auckland City
22 Aug
Auckland City
2 : 0
Central Coast
19 Aug
Auckland City
3 : 1
Rewa
16 Aug
Auckland City
4 : 3
Venus
13 Aug
Tiga Sport
0 : 1
Auckland City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 10 7 0 3 23:14 21
2 Auckland City 10 6 2 2 19:14 20
3 Miramar 10 6 1 3 25:14 19
4 Auckland FC 2 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Western Springs 10 5 1 4 16:13 16
6 Birkenhead 10 5 0 5 20:21 15
7 Christchurch 10 4 2 4 16:19 14
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 10 3 1 6 18:21 10
9 Western Suburbs 10 3 1 6 19:21 10
10 Auckland United 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
11 Coastal Spirit 10 2 1 7 5:23 7
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)