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Mirassol vs Gremio

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Fri, Jul 17, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mirassol host Gremio in the Serie A Betano. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Mirassol at 1.13 goals for, 1 against; Gremio at 1.75 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Mirassol slightly — 3-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2025, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.19 - 1.38) back Mirassol to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mirassol
40%
Draws
29%
Gremio
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Mirassol haven't matched Gremio's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Mirassol here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 17%
Gremio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mirassol Gremio
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Mirassol
0:1
Apr 16, 2025 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Gremio
4:1
Mar 2, 2022 Copa Betano do Brasil
Mirassol vs Gremio
3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mirassol 31 / 100
Gremio 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mirassol Gremio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Mirassol's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Gremio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Mirassol remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mirassol VS Gremio
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339