Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mirassol vs Gremio

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Bruno Santos
Assist: Igor Formiga
38'
Denilson
40' Event
Edson Carioca
Assist: Denilson

AI Match Summary

Mirassol in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mirassol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Mirassol
20%
Draws
38%
Gremio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mirassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Mirassol haven't matched Gremio's recent run of results.
  • Mirassol are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Mirassol here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 17%
Gremio Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mirassol Gremio
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Gremio
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Mirassol
0:1
Apr 16, 2025 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Gremio
4:1
Mar 2, 2022 Copa Betano do Brasil
Mirassol vs Gremio
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mirassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruno Santos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edson Carioca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Vinicius
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mirassol 41 / 100
Gremio 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mirassol Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Mirassol's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Gremio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Mirassol remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mirassol VS Gremio
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mirassol

(Home)
17 Jul
Mirassol
2 : 1
Gremio
30 May
Athletico-PR
1 : 0
Mirassol
26 May
Lanus
1 : 0
Mirassol
23 May
Mirassol
1 : 0
Fluminense
20 May
Always Ready
1 : 2
Mirassol
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Gremio

(Away)
17 Jul
Mirassol
2 : 1
Gremio
12 Jul
Gremio
3 : 1
Cruzeiro
04 Jul
Gremio
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
27 Jun
FC Cascavel
1 : 2
Gremio
30 May
Gremio
1 : 3
Corinthians
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1995529:2432
4Bragantino1993726:2030
5Athletico-PR1893624:1830
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1846821:2918
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)