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Somalia

National league

Jeenyo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mogadishu City enters this National league fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 61%. Mogadishu City averages 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded in recent matches. Jeenyo shows a form average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 5 wins for Mogadishu City, 0 wins for Jeenyo, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 08.06.26 ended in a 5:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.00 for Mogadishu City and 1.13 for Jeenyo, suggesting the primary value lies in the Mogadishu City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%

Mogadishu City

18%

Draws

21%

Jeenyo

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Mogadishu City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Mogadishu City picked up more points recently compared to Jeenyo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Mogadishu City Clean Sheet 21%

Jeenyo Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mogadishu City	Jeenyo
Matches Played	33	29
Wins	20	7
Draws	9	8
Losses	4	14
Goals Scored	2.15	1.52
Goals Conceded	0.7	1.66
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

08.06.26 National league

Mogadishu City vs Jeenyo

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

5:2

14.02.26 National league

Jeenyo vs Mogadishu City

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

07.05.25 National league

Mogadishu City vs Jeenyo

Possession: 48% - 42% Cards: 4 - 1

2:1

23.01.25 National league

Jeenyo vs Mogadishu City

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 3 - 2

0:2

19.06.24 National league

Jeenyo vs Mogadishu City

Possession: 56% - 51% Cards: 1 - 2

0:4

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Mogadishu City

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Jeenyo

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mogadishu City 59 / 100

Jeenyo 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mogadishu City Jeenyo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mogadishu City Win (1)

Secondary Pick Mogadishu City & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.3%

1.89

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Mogadishu City is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Mogadishu City 67%

Jeenyo 17%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Jeenyo will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Mogadishu City's attacks.

Mogadishu City 58%

Jeenyo 22%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Mogadishu City to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Mogadishu City 61%

Jeenyo 21%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Mogadishu City vary their attacking width.

Mogadishu City 64%

Jeenyo 20%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Jeenyo, allowing Mogadishu City's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Mogadishu City 55%

Jeenyo 23%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Mogadishu City, while Jeenyo takes risks to salvage a result.

Mogadishu City 70%

Jeenyo 24%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mogadishu City attacking → ← attacking Jeenyo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mogadishu City have found the net in 82% of their last 33 matches.

Jeenyo have conceded at least one goal in 93% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.40 goals per match.

Mogadishu City remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Jeenyo suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 29

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heegan	16	11	4	1	42:13	37
2	Gaadiidka	15	9	5	1	42:13	32
3	Horseed	16	9	5	2	34:14	32
4	Elman	16	10	2	4	30:11	32
5	Mogadishu City	16	9	5	2	29:10	32
6	Dekedda	16	7	7	2	28:15	28
7	Jazeera	15	4	4	7	25:28	16
8	Jeenyo	16	3	6	7	27:26	15
9	Badbaado	15	4	2	9	24:25	14
10	Raadsan	15	3	1	11	19:38	10
11	Jubba	16	2	0	14	10:62	6
12	Gantaalaha Afgooye	14	1	1	12	13:68	4