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Mohammedan vs Army Red - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

India India

Durand Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Lalthankima
59' Event
Kamei C.
90' Event
Shafeel PP

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mohammedan
15%
Draws
54%
Army Red
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Army Red

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Army Red come out ahead of Mohammedan on wins alone.
  • Model gives Army Red a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Army Red arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Army Red, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Mohammedan Clean Sheet 17%
Army Red Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohammedan Army Red
Matches Played 36 29
Wins 10 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2026 Durand Cup
Mohammedan vs Army Red
1:2
Jul 9, 2024 Calcutta Premier Division
Army Red vs Mohammedan
1:3
Aug 31, 2023 Calcutta Premier Division
Army Red vs Mohammedan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohammedan Compare

Top Goalscorer Lalthankima
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Army Red Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamei C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shafeel PP
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohammedan 12 / 100
Army Red 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohammedan Army Red

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Army Red Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohammedan scored in 72% of their last 36 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Mohammedan stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Army Red let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mohammedan VS Army Red
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mohammedan

(Home)
19 Sept
Mohun Bagan U23
3 : 2
Mohammedan
14 Sept
East Bengal
1 : 1
Mohammedan
11 Sept
Mohammedan
2 : 0
Bhawanipore
04 Sept
Peerless
2 : 0
Mohammedan
31 Aug
Kalighat SL
1 : 2
Mohammedan
Page 1 of 8

Army Red

(Away)
16 Aug
Army Red
0 : 1
East Bengal
12 Aug
Mohammedan
1 : 2
Army Red
05 Aug
Army Red
4 : 0
Baghpat
26 Jul
Army Red
1 : 0
Samaleswari SC
11 Aug
Army Red
4 : 2
1 Ladakh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mohun Bagan 3 3 0 0 15:0 9
2 East Bengal 3 2 0 1 13:1 6
3 South United 3 1 0 2 2:13 3
4 CISF Protectors 3 0 0 3 0:16 0
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Army Red 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Samaleswari SC 3 2 0 1 7:4 6
3 Mohammedan 3 1 0 2 7:5 3
4 Baghpat 3 0 0 3 1:12 0
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Delhi 3 3 0 0 16:2 9
2 Jamshedpur 3 2 0 1 12:2 6
3 Indian Air Force (New Delhi) 3 1 0 2 3:14 3
4 Defenders FC 3 0 0 3 1:14 0
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Raengdai 3 2 0 1 6:6 6
2 TRAU FC 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
3 NEROCA 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Indian Navy 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lajong 3 2 1 0 10:3 7
2 Langsning 3 1 2 0 10:5 5
3 Nongkseh 3 1 1 1 9:4 4
4 Mumbay FC 3 0 0 3 0:17 0
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 North East United 3 3 0 0 13:2 9
2 Bodoland FC 3 2 0 1 9:6 6
3 FC 1 3 1 0 2 3:7 3
4 Karbi Anglong 3 0 0 3 2:12 0
Promotion - Durand Cup (Play Offs)