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Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC

India India

Super Cup Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium (Fatorda)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mohun Bagan play Chennaiyin FC in the Super Cup. Mohun Bagan are favorites here. Recently, Mohun Bagan averaged 1.81 goals scored and 0.69 conceded. Chennaiyin FC averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Mohun Bagan won 3, Chennaiyin FC won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 23, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Mohun Bagan and 0.75 for Chennaiyin FC. This points to a Mohun Bagan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Mohun Bagan
24%
Draws
18%
Chennaiyin FC
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Mohun Bagan picked up more points recently compared to Chennaiyin FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 27%
Chennaiyin FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan Chennaiyin FC
Matches Played 36 29
Wins 22 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 1.81 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2026 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 Super Cup
Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC
2:0
Jan 21, 2025 ISL
Chennaiyin FC vs Mohun Bagan
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC
1:0
Mar 31, 2024 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohun Bagan Compare

Top Goalscorer Maclaren J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chennaiyin FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 58 / 100
Chennaiyin FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan Chennaiyin FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mohun Bagan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Mohun Bagan & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mohun Bagan attacking → ← attacking Chennaiyin FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan scored in 80% of their last 35 games.

Chennaiyin FC let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mohun Bagan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Chennaiyin FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

75 Points in last 5 22
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1East Bengal31206:25
2Mohun Bagan31202:05
3Dempo30303:33
4Chennaiyin FC30121:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Goa32016:26
2North East United31206:55
3Jamshedpur31114:44
4Inter Kashi30122:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Minerva Punjab22006:06
2Bengaluru FC22006:06
3Gokulam31023:73
4Mohammedan30030:80
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mumbai City32015:26
2Kerala Blasters32014:16
3Rajasthan United31113:34
4SC Delhi30123:91