Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Match Events

68'

Aliyev N.

83'

Mardanov Z.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

MOIK Baku play Safa Baku in the I Liqa. It looks like a close match. Recently, MOIK Baku averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Safa Baku averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. In past meetings, MOIK Baku won 1, Safa Baku won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 22, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for MOIK Baku and 1.44 for Safa Baku. This points to a Safa Baku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

MOIK Baku

39%

Draws

30%

Safa Baku

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Safa Baku has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to MOIK Baku.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in I Liqa provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 16%

Safa Baku Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	MOIK Baku	Safa Baku
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	17
Draws	7	9
Losses	14	4
Goals Scored	1.25	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.63	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 46% - 49% Cards: 3 - 0

3:0

Dec 25, 2025 I Liqa

MOIK Baku vs Safa Baku

Possession: 56% - 54% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Oct 2, 2025 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

May 3, 2005 Premier League

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

0:3

Dec 4, 2004 Premier League

MOIK Baku vs Safa Baku

Possession: 56% - 57% Cards: 1 - 4

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MOIK Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev N.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mardanov Z.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 31 / 100

Safa Baku 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

MOIK Baku Safa Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAF Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MOIK Baku scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Safa Baku let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

MOIK Baku went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Safa Baku lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

MOIK Baku VS Safa Baku

1.25 Goals Scored 1.25

1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75

88% Over 1.5 50%

75% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18