Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Molde vs Valerenga

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Aker Stadion, Molde
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Gulbrandsen F.
Assist: Hestad E.
38'
Gulbrandsen F.
45' Event
Haren L.
Assist: Grundetjern M.

AI Match Summary

The Eliteserien game between Molde and Valerenga finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Molde.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Molde
20%
Draws
44%
Valerenga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Valerenga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Valerenga come out ahead of Molde on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Molde's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).
  • Molde have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Molde Clean Sheet 10%
Valerenga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Molde Valerenga
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 5 4
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.79 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
5:1
Sep 28, 2025 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
4:1
Jun 22, 2025 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Molde
2:3
Aug 19, 2023 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
0:0
Jul 15, 2023 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Molde
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Molde Compare

Top Goalscorer Gulbrandsen F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Breivik E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Valerenga Compare

Top Goalscorer Haren L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Molde 38 / 100
Valerenga 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Molde Valerenga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Molde scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Valerenga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Molde stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Molde VS Valerenga
2.38 Goals Scored 2.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Molde

(Home)
09 Aug
Kristiansund
2 : 1
Molde
02 Aug
Molde
3 : 3
Sarpsborg 08
26 Jul
KFUM Oslo
2 : 4
Molde
18 Jul
Molde
1 : 2
Brann
11 Jul
Aalesund
2 : 2
Molde
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Valerenga

(Away)
08 Aug
Valerenga
1 : 2
Bodo/Glimt
31 Jul
Valerenga
0 : 3
Ham-Kam
26 Jul
Brann
2 : 3
Valerenga
16 Jul
Valerenga
6 : 1
Aalesund
11 Jul
Tromso
4 : 0
Valerenga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bodo/Glimt 17 13 2 2 43:12 41
2 Viking 16 13 1 2 39:15 40
3 Tromso 16 10 4 2 32:17 34
4 Lillestrom 16 8 1 7 22:20 25
5 Molde 16 7 3 6 29:24 24
6 Brann 16 7 1 8 33:27 22
7 Sarpsborg 08 16 6 4 6 19:21 22
8 Ham-Kam 16 6 4 6 24:27 22
9 Rosenborg 16 6 3 7 23:21 21
10 Valerenga 16 6 2 8 23:29 20
11 Fredrikstad 16 6 2 8 17:27 20
12 KFUM Oslo 16 5 3 8 18:26 18
13 Sandefjord 16 4 3 9 13:22 15
14 Kristiansund 16 4 3 9 15:26 15
15 Aalesund 16 2 8 6 22:36 14
16 Start 17 2 4 11 16:38 10
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)