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Moldova vs Bulgaria

World World

Friendly International Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Popescu P.
23' Event
Rusev G.
Assist: Tsonev B.
43'
Lungu T.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Moldova and Bulgaria finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Moldova
30%
Draws
58%
Bulgaria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bulgaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Moldova come out ahead of Bulgaria on wins alone.
  • Bulgaria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bulgaria here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Moldova Clean Sheet 10%
Bulgaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moldova Bulgaria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Friendly International
Moldova vs Bulgaria
2:2
Apr 25, 1995 Euro
Moldova vs Bulgaria
0:3
Nov 15, 1994 Euro
Bulgaria vs Moldova
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moldova Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogaciuc V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baboglo V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Bulgaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Rusev G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Petkov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moldova 10 / 100
Bulgaria 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moldova Bulgaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bulgaria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Moldova found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Bulgaria conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Moldova remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Moldova VS Bulgaria
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
3.63 Goals Conceded 3.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Moldova

(Home)
09 Jun
Armenia
1 : 1
Moldova
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2
Bulgaria
30 Mar
Cyprus
3 : 2
Moldova
26 Mar
Moldova
0 : 2
Lithuania
16 Nov
Israel
4 : 1
Moldova
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Bulgaria

(Away)
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2
Bulgaria
01 Jun
Bulgaria
0 : 1
Montenegro
30 Mar
Indonesia
0 : 1
Bulgaria
27 Mar
Solomon Islands
2 : 10
Bulgaria
18 Nov
Bulgaria
2 : 1
Georgia
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