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Moldova vs Lithuania

World World

Friendly International Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Lasickas J.
Assist: Sirvys P.
46'
Sub
Gherasimencov M. In: Dumbravanu D.
Out: Gherasimencov M.
46'
Sub
Cararus I. In: Lungu T.
Out: Cararus I.

AI Match Summary

Lithuania in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lithuania.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Moldova
20%
Draws
60%
Lithuania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lithuania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Moldova have won more games recently than Lithuania.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Moldova Clean Sheet 10%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moldova Lithuania
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.03 0.82
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 Friendly International
Moldova vs Lithuania
0:2
Nov 18, 2013 Friendly International
Moldova vs Lithuania
1:1
Nov 19, 2008 Friendly International
Moldova vs Lithuania
1:1
Aug 20, 2008 Friendly International
Lithuania vs Moldova
3:0
Aug 16, 2006 Friendly International
Moldova vs Lithuania
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moldova Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Lithuania Compare

Top Goalscorer Lasickas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gineitis G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moldova 30 / 100
Lithuania 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moldova Lithuania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lithuania Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Moldova scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Lithuania let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Lithuania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Moldova VS Lithuania
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
3.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Moldova

(Home)
09 Jun
Armenia
1 : 1
Moldova
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2
Bulgaria
30 Mar
Cyprus
3 : 2
Moldova
26 Mar
Moldova
0 : 2
Lithuania
16 Nov
Israel
4 : 1
Moldova
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Lithuania

(Away)
09 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Lithuania
06 Jun
Lithuania
2 : 1
Latvia
29 Mar
Lithuania
0 : 2
Georgia
26 Mar
Moldova
0 : 2
Lithuania
17 Nov
Netherlands
4 : 0
Lithuania
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