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Molfetta Calcio vs Afragolese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Padulano F.
78'
90' Event
Mancino A.

AI Match Summary

Afragolese in this Serie D - Group H 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Afragolese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Molfetta Calcio
30%
Draws
35%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Afragolese have won more games recently than Molfetta Calcio.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Molfetta Calcio Clean Sheet 19%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Molfetta Calcio Afragolese
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 9
Draws 7 13
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Molfetta Calcio vs Afragolese
0:2
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Molfetta Calcio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Molfetta Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Padulano F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancino A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Molfetta Calcio 36 / 100
Afragolese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Molfetta Calcio Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afragolese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Molfetta Calcio scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Afragolese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Molfetta Calcio has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Afragolese
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Molfetta Calcio

(Home)
10 Aug
Molfetta Calcio
2 : 1
Barletta
14 May
Gravina
3 : 1
Molfetta Calcio
07 May
Molfetta Calcio
0 : 2
Afragolese
30 Apr
Altamura
2 : 1
Molfetta Calcio
23 Apr
Molfetta Calcio
1 : 0
Nocerina
Page 1 of 6

Afragolese

(Away)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brindisi 34 20 9 5 59:27 69
2 Cavese 34 20 9 5 66:35 69
3 A.C.D. Nardo 34 18 11 5 51:26 65
4 Barletta 34 17 13 4 42:29 64
5 Casarano 34 13 18 3 46:32 57
6 Altamura 34 15 11 8 51:37 56
7 Matera 34 13 11 10 53:46 50
8 Martina Calcio 34 11 12 11 40:43 45
9 Citta di Fasano 34 11 11 12 43:43 44
10 Bitonto 34 11 10 13 45:51 43
11 Afragolese 34 8 15 11 41:45 39
12 San Felice Gladiator 34 8 13 13 42:55 37
13 Nocerina 34 9 9 16 40:51 36
14 Gravina 34 7 15 12 29:41 36
15 Molfetta Calcio 34 7 11 16 40:50 32
16 Francavilla 34 7 9 18 38:51 30
17 Lavello 34 7 5 22 31:68 26
18 Puteolana Internapoli 34 3 10 21 32:59 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2022/2023 (Play Out)