Sport Picks

Venezuela

Copa Venezuela

Monagas

5 - 1

Bolivar

Our Tip

Match Events

Basante F.

20'

Arismendi W.

67'

Farias E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-1. The second leg ended 5-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Monagas

20%

Draws

33%

Bolivar

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Monagas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Monagas's 1.35 goals per match outpaces what Bolivar have produced (1.21).
47% — that's where the model lands on Monagas taking it.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Monagas, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Monagas here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Monagas Clean Sheet 16%

Bolivar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Monagas	Bolivar
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	12	12
Draws	5	5
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	1.35	1.21
Goals Conceded	1.29	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.81	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Copa Venezuela

Monagas vs Bolivar

5:1

Aug 26, 2026 Copa Venezuela

Bolivar vs Monagas

1:3

Jul 2, 2025 Copa Venezuela

Bolivar vs Monagas

0:0

Jun 11, 2025 Copa Venezuela

Monagas vs Bolivar

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monagas Compare

Top Goalscorer Basante F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Farias E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.39

Avg xA / game 0.91

Bolivar Compare

Top Goalscorer Arismendi W.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monagas 84 / 100

Bolivar 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Monagas Bolivar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monagas Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monagas scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Bolivar has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Monagas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monagas VS Bolivar

1.88 Goals Scored 1.75

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75

63% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 88%

63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monagas

(Home)

19 Sept

Rayo Zuliano

1 : 1

Monagas

16 Sept

Monagas

1 : 0

Zamora

13 Sept

Caracas

0 : 1

Monagas

09 Sept

Monagas

5 : 1

Bolivar

06 Sept

Monagas

0 : 1

Metropolitanos

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Bolivar

(Away)

20 Sept

Bolivar

1 : 1

Aragua

13 Sept

Mineros

4 : 1

Bolivar

09 Sept

Monagas

5 : 1

Bolivar

06 Sept

Deportivo Miranda

1 : 2

Bolivar

30 Aug

Bolivar

2 : 1

Avila

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