Sport Picks
Moncarapachense vs FC Barreirense
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 
Match Events
9'
9'
Conceicao D.
Own Goal
22'
22'
Motty D.
32'
32'
Leal de Barros O. A.
AI Match Summary
The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Moncarapachense and FC Barreirense finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moncarapachense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moncarapachense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Moncarapachense carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Moncarapachense a 41% chance of winning this.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Moncarapachense here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 68%
FC Barreirense Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moncarapachense | FC Barreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 11 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.79 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Moncarapachense
1:2
Jan 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs FC Barreirense
3:2
Mar 24, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs FC Barreirense
1:1
Dec 10, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Moncarapachense
0:1
Feb 13, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group F
Moncarapachense vs FC Barreirense
6:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moncarapachense Compare
Top Goalscorer Leal de Barros O. A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Motty D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4
FC Barreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Canario R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moncarapachense 68 / 100
FC Barreirense 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moncarapachense FC Barreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moncarapachense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: FC Barreirense conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Moncarapachense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Moncarapachense scored in 59% of their last 32 outings.
Scoring Trends
Moncarapachense VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Moncarapachense
(Home) 18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1 Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0 Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0 Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3 Moncarapachense
Page 1 of 7
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1 Juv. Evora
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0 Sintrense
08 Mar
Moncarapachense
1 : 0 Malveira
15 Feb
Moncarapachense
1 : 1 Industria
31 Jan
Moncarapachense
1 : 3 GD Alcochetense
Page 1 of 4
FC Barreirense
(Away) 13 Apr
FC Barreirense
1 : 2 Moncarapachense
06 Apr
Amora
1 : 0 FC Barreirense
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3 FC Barreirense
16 Mar
FC Barreirense
1 : 1 Lagoa
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1 FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6
06 Apr
Amora
1 : 0 FC Barreirense
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3 FC Barreirense
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1 FC Barreirense
23 Feb
Operario
0 : 2 FC Barreirense
09 Feb
Lusitano GC
2 : 0 FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitano GC | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 57:14 | 58 |
| 2 | Amora | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 41:19 | 57 |
| 3 | Sintrense | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 39:26 | 52 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 51 |
| 5 | Louletano | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 44:20 | 50 |
| 6 | Serpa | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 42:27 | 45 |
| 7 | Estrela da Amadora B | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 35:31 | 30 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:35 | 30 |
| 9 | Industria | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 35:42 | 29 |
| 10 | Fabril do Barreiro | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 21:32 | 27 |
| 11 | Moura AC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 27:50 | 26 |
| 12 | Operario | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 22:43 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Barreirense | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 31:47 | 22 |
| 14 | Estrela Vendas Novas | 26 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 12:66 | 5 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)
