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Moncarapachense vs GD Alcochetense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Moncarapachense Logo

Moncarapachense

1 - 3
FT
GD Alcochetense Logo

GD Alcochetense

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Leal de Barros O. A.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Lima T.
39' Event
Joca
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Alcochetense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored GD Alcochetense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Moncarapachense
30%
Draws
43%
GD Alcochetense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Moncarapachense haven't matched GD Alcochetense's recent run of results.
  • GD Alcochetense are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 26%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moncarapachense GD Alcochetense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs GD Alcochetense
1:3
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Moncarapachense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moncarapachense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

GD Alcochetense Compare

Top Goalscorer Joca
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lima T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moncarapachense 17 / 100
GD Alcochetense 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moncarapachense GD Alcochetense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Alcochetense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

GD Alcochetense has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Moncarapachense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Moncarapachense scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Moncarapachense VS GD Alcochetense
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.33 Goals Conceded 1
33% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Moncarapachense

(Home)
18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1
Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0
Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0
Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3
Moncarapachense
Page 1 of 6

GD Alcochetense

(Away)
27 Sept
Aljustrelense
0 : 2
GD Alcochetense
20 Sept
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
C.F. Benfica
13 Sept
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Imortal
06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0
Fayal
23 Aug
GD Alcochetense
2 : 2
Portel
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)