Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montana vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Ogosta Stadium, Montana
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montana host Nesebar in the Vtora liga. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Nesebar have shipped 0.88 goals a game lately, while Montana have conceded 2.25 and scored 1. Head-to-head, Montana have won 4 to Nesebar's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2025, ending 1:3. xG projections (0.94 - 3.13) back Nesebar to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Montana
6%
Draws
90%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nesebar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Montana here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Montana Clean Sheet 10%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montana Nesebar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 3 20
Draws 9 6
Losses 16 3
Goals Scored 1 4
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Montana
1:3
Sep 28, 2024 Vtora liga
Montana vs Nesebar
2:0
May 23, 2019 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Montana
1:2
Nov 26, 2018 Vtora liga
Montana vs Nesebar
3:1
Mar 31, 2018 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Montana
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montana 10 / 100
Nesebar 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montana Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Montana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Montana's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nesebar conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Montana VS Nesebar
1 Goals Scored 4
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Montana

(Home)
25 Jul
Svoge
2 : 2
Montana
18 Jul
Montana
3 : 1
Spartak Pleven
11 Jul
Slavia Sofia
7 : 2
Montana
01 Jul
CSKA Sofia II
1 : 1
Montana
22 May
Slavia Sofia
2 : 0
Montana
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Nesebar

(Away)
25 Jul
Nesebar
1 : 5
Etar
08 Jul
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Nesebar
01 Jul
Ludogorets II
1 : 1
Nesebar
27 May
Nesebar
8 : 1
Asenovets
23 May
Zagorets
2 : 4
Nesebar
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Etar11005:13
2Dobrudzha11005:13
3Spartak Pleven11002:03
4Beroe11002:13
5Marek11001:03
6Ludogorets II11001:03
7Montana10102:21
8Svoge10102:21
9Vihren10101:11
10Gorna10101:11
11CSKA Sofia II10101:11
12Chernomorets 191910101:11
13Hebar10011:20
14Rilski Sportist10010:10
15Fratria10010:10
16Yantra Gabrovo10010:20
17Pirin Blagoevgrad10011:50
18Nesebar10011:50
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)