Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montana vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Ogosta Stadium, Montana
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Dotsev V.
10' Event
Mitev R.
15' Event
Grigorov B.

AI Match Summary

The Vtora liga game between Montana and Nesebar finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Montana
30%
Draws
47%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Nesebar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Montana here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montana Clean Sheet 16%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montana Nesebar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 19
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 4
Goals Scored 0.9 2.83
Goals Conceded 1.59 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 Vtora liga
Montana vs Nesebar
3:1
Apr 6, 2025 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Montana
1:3
Sep 28, 2024 Vtora liga
Montana vs Nesebar
2:0
May 23, 2019 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Montana
1:2
Nov 26, 2018 Vtora liga
Montana vs Nesebar
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montana Compare

Top Goalscorer Grigorov B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karakashev G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Nesebar Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitev R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montana 10 / 100
Nesebar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montana Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Nesebar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Montana's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Montana remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montana VS Nesebar
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montana

(Home)
13 Sept
CSKA Sofia II
4 : 0
Montana
08 Sept
Montana
1 : 4
Vihren
03 Sept
Beroe
0 : 0
Montana
30 Aug
Montana
3 : 0
Gorna
22 Aug
Rilski Sportist
2 : 1
Montana
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Nesebar

(Away)
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21:8 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 19:8 17
3 Fratria 9 4 4 1 12:7 16
4 Yantra Gabrovo 9 5 1 3 12:9 16
5 Chernomorets 1919 9 4 3 2 12:6 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 12:8 15
7 Etar 9 4 2 3 15:15 14
8 Nesebar 9 4 2 3 16:12 14
9 Marek 9 4 1 4 10:9 13
10 Ludogorets II 9 3 3 3 9:9 12
11 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 10:9 12
12 Gorna 9 3 3 3 8:10 12
13 Hebar 9 3 2 4 18:17 11
14 Montana 9 3 2 4 13:16 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10:19 10
16 Svoge 9 1 4 4 4:7 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 9:14 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 3:30 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)