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Monte Azul vs Lemense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Bajana K.
25' Event
Josue
45' Event
Gui Sales

AI Match Summary

Monte Azul in this Paulista A3 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monte Azul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Monte Azul
30%
Draws
47%
Lemense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lemense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Monte Azul at 1.19 per game, Lemense at 0.87.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Monte Azul Clean Sheet 68%
Lemense Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monte Azul Lemense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.19 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2025 Paulista A3
Monte Azul vs Lemense
4:2
Mar 11, 2023 Paulista A2
Lemense vs Monte Azul
0:2
Feb 3, 2022 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Lemense
0:1
Feb 27, 2021 Paulista A2
Lemense vs Monte Azul
1:0
Feb 21, 2020 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Lemense
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monte Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Gui Sales
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bajana K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Lemense Compare

Top Goalscorer Josue
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ronaldo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monte Azul 41 / 100
Lemense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monte Azul Lemense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monte Azul Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Monte Azul scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Lemense conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Lemense registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monte Azul VS Lemense
0.83 Goals Scored 1.25
1.83 Goals Conceded 0.75
67% Over 1.5 50%
33% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Monte Azul

(Home)
07 Mar
Ituano
3 : 3
Monte Azul
04 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 2
Sertaozinho
01 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 1
Agua Santa
25 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 3
Juventus-SP
22 Feb
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Monte Azul
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Lemense

(Away)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monte Azul 15 8 6 1 27:14 30
2 Marilia 15 8 4 3 24:17 28
3 Desportivo 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
4 Sertaozinho 15 6 7 2 14:8 25
5 Catanduva FC 15 7 3 5 17:17 24
6 Rio Branco SP 15 6 5 4 25:15 23
7 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 18:13 22
8 Itapirense 15 6 2 7 14:13 20
9 Rio Preto EC 15 5 5 5 12:14 20
10 Uniao Suzano 15 5 2 8 15:22 17
11 XV de Jau 15 4 5 6 9:12 17
12 Francana 15 3 8 4 17:19 17
13 EC Sao Bernardo 15 3 7 5 11:15 16
14 Bandeirante 15 4 3 8 12:20 15
15 Lemense 15 3 4 8 12:21 13
16 Comercial 15 2 5 8 8:18 11
Promotion - Paulista A3 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 (Main)