Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Montebelluna play Dolomiti Bellunesi in the Serie D - Group C 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montebelluna averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Dolomiti Bellunesi averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Montebelluna won 2, Dolomiti Bellunesi won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 25, 2024 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Montebelluna and 0.93 for Dolomiti Bellunesi. This points to a Montebelluna double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Montebelluna

23%

Draws

33%

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Montebelluna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Montebelluna picked up more points recently compared to Dolomiti Bellunesi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 0.93 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Montebelluna Clean Sheet 24%

Dolomiti Bellunesi Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Montebelluna	Dolomiti Bellunesi
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	11	10
Draws	9	6
Losses	10	16
Goals Scored	1.07	1.06
Goals Conceded	1.2	1.53

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2024 Serie D - Group C

Montebelluna vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 2 - 1

1:4

Oct 22, 2023 Serie D - Group C

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Montebelluna

Possession: 44% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

0:2

May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group C

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Montebelluna

Possession: 51% - 51% Cards: 1 - 0

4:1

Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group C

Montebelluna vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Apr 3, 2022 Serie D - Group C

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Montebelluna

Possession: 54% - 57% Cards: 2 - 1

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montebelluna Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Dolomiti Bellunesi Compare

Top Goalscorer Tardivo M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Marangon G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montebelluna 44 / 100

Dolomiti Bellunesi 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Montebelluna Dolomiti Bellunesi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Montebelluna or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montebelluna attacking → ← attacking Dolomiti Bellunesi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montebelluna scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Dolomiti Bellunesi let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Montebelluna went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Dolomiti Bellunesi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 36

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Clodiense	34	25	5	4	49:17	80
2	Dolomiti Bellunesi	34	19	9	6	56:25	66
3	Treviso	34	19	3	12	51:37	60
4	Bassano Virtus	34	15	9	10	35:30	54
5	Campodarsego	34	12	15	7	42:26	51
6	Este	34	13	12	9	44:33	51
7	Montecchio Maggiore	34	14	9	11	48:40	51
8	Adriese	34	13	11	10	54:41	50
9	Portogruaro	34	13	9	12	52:43	48
10	Mestre	34	13	9	12	34:37	48
11	Montebelluna	34	11	12	11	35:41	45
12	Chions	34	10	11	13	40:50	41
13	Luparense FC	34	10	9	15	38:41	39
14	Breno	34	8	13	13	39:49	37
15	Cjarlins Muzane	34	7	14	13	30:37	35
16	Castegnato	34	7	12	15	39:58	33
17	Virtus Bolzano	34	4	12	18	25:52	24
18	Mori	34	3	6	25	22:76	15