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Montebelluna vs Mestre

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Brigati A.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Montebelluna in this Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montebelluna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Montebelluna
35%
Draws
45%
Mestre
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mestre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mestre lately — more wins on the board than Montebelluna.
  • Win probability leans Mestre's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Montebelluna Clean Sheet 23%
Mestre Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montebelluna Mestre
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 11 15
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Mestre
1:0
Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Montebelluna
2:0
Apr 16, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Mestre
2:1
Dec 3, 2022 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Montebelluna
2:1
Apr 27, 2022 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Montebelluna
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montebelluna 29 / 100
Mestre 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montebelluna Mestre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mestre Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montebelluna found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Mestre let in goals in 65% of their last 34 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Montebelluna went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mestre
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montebelluna

(Home)
05 May
Clodiense
2 : 0
Montebelluna
28 Apr
Montebelluna
3 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
21 Apr
Breno
3 : 2
Montebelluna
14 Apr
Montebelluna
0 : 0
Montecchio Maggiore
07 Apr
Treviso
2 : 0
Montebelluna
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Mestre

(Away)
27 Sept
FC Obermais
2 : 2
Mestre
20 Sept
Mestre
3 : 2
Altavilla
16 Sept
Bassano Virtus
0 : 0
Mestre
12 Sept
Mestre
1 : 1
Luparense FC
06 Sept
Calvi Noale
0 : 2
Mestre
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)