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Montecasillas vs Caravaca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Piqueras A.
89' Event
Zaplana A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 game between Montecasillas and Caravaca finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Montecasillas
20%
Draws
50%
Caravaca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caravaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Montecasillas have managed 0.93 goals a game lately — Caravaca are scoring more at 1.19.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Caravaca taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 24%
Caravaca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecasillas Caravaca
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 7
Draws 2 12
Losses 21 13
Goals Scored 0.93 1.19
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Montecasillas
8:0
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Caravaca
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecasillas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Caravaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Piqueras A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zaplana A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecasillas 10 / 100
Caravaca 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecasillas Caravaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Montecasillas scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Caravaca has conceded goals in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Montecasillas has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Caravaca
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecasillas

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

Caravaca

(Away)
09 May
Bala Azul
2 : 4
Caravaca
03 May
Caravaca
0 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
25 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Caravaca
19 Apr
Caravaca
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
12 Apr
Yeclano B
3 : 1
Caravaca
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)