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Montecasillas vs Molinense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Lopez S.
60' Event
Lengua S.
65' Event
Ballesta M. A.

AI Match Summary

Molinense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Molinense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Montecasillas
15%
Draws
59%
Molinense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Molinense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Molinense lately — more wins on the board than Montecasillas.
  • Win probability leans Molinense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 18%
Molinense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecasillas Molinense
Matches Played 30 41
Wins 7 25
Draws 2 8
Losses 21 8
Goals Scored 0.93 1.83
Goals Conceded 2.57 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Molinense
1:3
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Molinense vs Montecasillas
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Lengua S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Molinense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ballesta M. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecasillas 10 / 100
Molinense 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecasillas Molinense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Molinense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Montecasillas scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Molinense has conceded goals in 66% of their last 41 outings.

Recent resilience: Montecasillas stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Molinense
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecasillas

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
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Molinense

(Away)
27 Sept
Molinense
3 : 2
Mazarron FC
20 Sept
Club Olimpico de Totana
1 : 0
Molinense
13 Sept
Molinense
2 : 2
San Javier
06 Sept
FC Cartagena SAD B
2 : 4
Molinense
24 May
Molinense
0 : 2
Club Olimpico de Totana
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)