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Montecchio Gallo vs Notaresco Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Mercuri L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Montecchio Gallo and Notaresco Calcio finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Notaresco Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Montecchio Gallo
35%
Draws
32%
Notaresco Calcio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Notaresco Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Montecchio Gallo taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Montecchio Gallo Clean Sheet 20%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecchio Gallo Notaresco Calcio
Matches Played 6 29
Wins 2 9
Draws 2 10
Losses 2 10
Goals Scored 0.83 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Montecchio Gallo vs Notaresco Calcio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecchio Gallo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Notaresco Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Mercuri L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecchio Gallo 42 / 100
Notaresco Calcio 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecchio Gallo Notaresco Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montecchio Gallo scored in 67% of their last 6 games.

Defensive concern: Notaresco Calcio conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Montecchio Gallo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Montecchio Gallo VS Notaresco Calcio
0.71 Goals Scored 1.38
0.71 Goals Conceded 2
43% Over 1.5 100%
29% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecchio Gallo

(Home)
04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
2 : 1
Pietralunga
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
Page 1 of 2

Notaresco Calcio

(Away)
04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
26 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 1
Pietralunga
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0
Santegidiese
12 Sept
Teramo
2 : 2
Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Teramo 6 4 1 1 17:11 13
3 Vigor Senigallia 6 4 1 1 14:10 13
4 Foligno 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
5 Ancona 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Fossombrone 6 3 1 2 6:9 10
7 Notaresco Calcio 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
8 Montecchio Gallo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Santegidiese 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Giulianova 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
11 Lanciano FC 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
12 Termoli 6 2 1 3 4:5 7
13 Maceratese 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
14 Atletico Ascoli 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Recanatese 6 1 3 2 8:9 6
16 Angelana 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
18 Pietralunga 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)