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Japan

J2/J3 League ND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Montedio Yamagata

Sun, May 3, 2026

3 - 2

05:03 AM

Tochigi SC

Our Tip

Match Events

30'

Tsutsumi H.

39'

Takahashi J.

Assist: Kida R.

46'

Sub

Okamoto K. In: Nodake H.

Out: Okamoto K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Montedio Yamagata and Tochigi SC finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montedio Yamagata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Montedio Yamagata

39%

Draws

30%

Tochigi SC

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Montedio Yamagata carry the better recent record into this one.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Montedio Yamagata have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%

Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 15%

Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Montedio Yamagata	Tochigi SC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	11
Draws	3	2
Losses	13	17
Goals Scored	1.25	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 J2/J3 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 55% - 56% Cards: 1 - 0

3:2

Feb 15, 2026 J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 58% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Jul 6, 2024 J2 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

Mar 3, 2024 J2 League

Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata

Possession: 57% - 48% Cards: 0 - 0

1:3

Oct 8, 2023 J2 League

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 56% - 44% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montedio Yamagata Compare

Top Goalscorer Takahashi J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Kida R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Tochigi SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsutsumi H.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Osone K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montedio Yamagata 31 / 100

Tochigi SC 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Montedio Yamagata Tochigi SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOC Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montedio Yamagata's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Tochigi SC has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Montedio Yamagata went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montedio Yamagata VS Tochigi SC

1.25 Goals Scored 1.38

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15