Sport Picks
Montehermoso vs AD Llerenense
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 
Match Events
11'
11'
Quijada C.
19'
19'
Martinez D.
65'
65'
Marrero M.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montehermoso and AD Llerenense finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
7%
15%
78%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
78%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AD Llerenense come out ahead of Montehermoso on wins alone.
- 78% — that's where the model lands on AD Llerenense taking it.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors AD Llerenense here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montehermoso | AD Llerenense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 18 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs AD Llerenense
2:2
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Montehermoso
1:0
Mar 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs AD Llerenense
0:2
Nov 26, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Montehermoso
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montehermoso Compare
Top Goalscorer Quijada C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Marrero M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Martinez D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Peguero G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montehermoso 10 / 100
AD Llerenense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montehermoso AD Llerenense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Montehermoso scored in 60% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: AD Llerenense conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Montehermoso has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montehermoso VS AD Llerenense
0.75 Goals Scored 1
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Montehermoso
(Home) 10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1 Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3 Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1 Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0 Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3 Villanovense
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
05 Apr
Montehermoso
1 : 0 Pueblonuevo
22 Mar
Montehermoso
1 : 2 Moralo
08 Mar
Montehermoso
1 : 0 SP Villafranca
Page 1 of 3
AD Llerenense
(Away) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
03 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0 AD Llerenense
15 Mar
Pueblonuevo
2 : 0 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
