Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montehermoso vs Don Alvaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Hernandez C.
71' Event
Quijada C.
Own Goal
85' Event
Rocha H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024 game between Montehermoso and Don Alvaro finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Don Alvaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Montehermoso
20%
Draws
40%
Don Alvaro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Don Alvaro come out ahead of Montehermoso on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 68%
Don Alvaro Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montehermoso Don Alvaro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 5 6
Draws 7 9
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 0.78 0.83
Goals Conceded 2 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Don Alvaro
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Don Alvaro vs Montehermoso
1:1
Apr 6, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Don Alvaro
2:0
Dec 11, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Don Alvaro vs Montehermoso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Don Alvaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Rocha H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montehermoso 41 / 100
Don Alvaro 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montehermoso Don Alvaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montehermoso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Don Alvaro let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Montehermoso scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Don Alvaro registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montehermoso VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montehermoso

(Home)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 7

Don Alvaro

(Away)
26 Jul
Don Alvaro
0 : 4
AD Merida
20 Jul
Don Alvaro
0 : 4
AD Merida
10 May
Pueblonuevo
2 : 2
Don Alvaro
05 May
Don Alvaro
0 : 1
RCP Valverdeno
28 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Don Alvaro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 23 7 4 71:13 76
2 CD Coria 34 19 12 3 58:20 69
3 CD Azuaga 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
4 SP Villafranca 34 15 10 9 45:26 55
5 Moralo 34 15 8 11 55:44 53
6 Castuera 34 15 7 12 49:37 52
7 CD Diocesano 34 14 7 13 50:46 49
8 Jaraiz 34 14 4 16 51:52 46
9 Pueblonuevo 34 12 7 15 35:45 43
10 CD Calamonte 34 9 15 10 40:52 42
11 Jerez CF 34 11 9 14 41:52 42
12 Olivenza FC 34 10 11 13 32:41 41
13 Arroyo 34 10 11 13 33:39 41
14 CF Trujillo 34 8 14 12 30:38 38
15 Don Alvaro 34 7 11 16 30:50 32
16 RCP Valverdeno 34 8 8 18 37:58 32
17 Montehermoso 34 7 11 16 33:63 32
18 Fuente de Cantos 34 4 13 17 28:59 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024 (Play Offs)