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Montehermoso vs Puebla de la Calzada Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Goore T.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montehermoso and Puebla de la Calzada finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montehermoso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Montehermoso
30%
Draws
62%
Puebla de la Calzada
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Puebla de la Calzada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Puebla de la Calzada come out ahead of Montehermoso on wins alone.
  • Puebla de la Calzada are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 11%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montehermoso Puebla de la Calzada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 7 9
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 0.77 1.07
Goals Conceded 2 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.77
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Montehermoso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Goore T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.61
Avg xA / game 0.98

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montehermoso 10 / 100
Puebla de la Calzada 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montehermoso Puebla de la Calzada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Puebla de la Calzada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla de la Calzada's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Montehermoso scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Montehermoso has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montehermoso VS Puebla de la Calzada
0.83 Goals Scored 0.88
2.67 Goals Conceded 1.75
83% Over 1.5 63%
83% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montehermoso

(Home)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
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Puebla de la Calzada

(Away)
03 Oct
Pueblonuevo
0 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
27 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
1 : 2
Quintana
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)