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Montehermoso vs Villanovense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montehermoso play Villanovense in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montehermoso averaged 0.77 goals scored and 2 conceded. Villanovense averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Montehermoso won 0, Villanovense won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Montehermoso and 1.94 for Villanovense. This points to a Villanovense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Montehermoso
23%
Draws
55%
Villanovense
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Montehermoso picked up more points recently compared to Villanovense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montehermoso Villanovense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.77 1.3
Goals Conceded 2 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Villanovense
0:3
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs Montehermoso
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montehermoso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Villanovense Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrasco A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montehermoso 22 / 100
Villanovense 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montehermoso Villanovense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villanovense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Villanovense & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montehermoso attacking → ← attacking Villanovense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montehermoso scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Villanovense let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Montehermoso went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Villanovense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 43
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722