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Monterey Bay vs Sporting Jax

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USL Championship Cardinale Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Monterey Bay play Sporting Jax in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monterey Bay averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Sporting Jax averaged 1.75 goals scored and 3.13 conceded. In past meetings, Monterey Bay won 1, Sporting Jax won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 11, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for Monterey Bay and 1.50 for Sporting Jax. This points to a Monterey Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Monterey Bay
6%
Draws
4%
Sporting Jax
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Monterey Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Monterey Bay has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Sporting Jax.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Monterey Bay.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in USL Championship provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 16%
Sporting Jax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterey Bay Sporting Jax
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 6 4
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 3.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Sporting Jax
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monterey Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bidois R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sporting Jax Compare

Top Goalscorer Sadlier K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterey Bay 84 / 100
Sporting Jax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterey Bay Sporting Jax

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterey Bay scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Sporting Jax let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Monterey Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sporting Jax lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monterey Bay VS Sporting Jax
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1447312:1319
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1344523:1816
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Orange County SC1677225:1828
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6Sacramento Republic1354415:1319
7El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
8FC Tulsa1354417:1619
9Lexington1353521:1618
10Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215