Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monterey Bay vs Sporting Jax

USA USA

USL Championship Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, CA
Monterey Bay Logo

Monterey Bay

2 - 1
FT
Sporting Jax Logo

Sporting Jax

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Garcia J.
Assist: Paul I.
26'
Neville H.
58'
Sub
Somersall R. In: Kuzain W.
Out: Somersall R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monterey Bay in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monterey Bay.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Monterey Bay
20%
Draws
48%
Sporting Jax
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sporting Jax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Monterey Bay have won more games recently than Sporting Jax.
  • Monterey Bay are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 15%
Sporting Jax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterey Bay Sporting Jax
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 4
Draws 6 4
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 1.21 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.9 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Sporting Jax
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monterey Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bidois R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Sporting Jax Compare

Top Goalscorer Sadlier K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterey Bay 75 / 100
Sporting Jax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterey Bay Sporting Jax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monterey Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Jax let in goals in 96% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Monterey Bay scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Sporting Jax has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monterey Bay VS Sporting Jax
1.13 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Monterey Bay

(Home)
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3
Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0
Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1
Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1
Sacramento Republic
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1
Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 6

Sporting Jax

(Away)
25 Sept
Sporting Jax
1 : 4
Loudoun United
16 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 0
Sporting Jax
12 Sept
Sporting Jax
0 : 3
Rhode Island
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2
Lexington
29 Aug
Brooklyn FC
4 : 1
Sporting Jax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 26 15 7 4 45:23 52
2 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
3 Detroit City 25 11 8 6 29:19 41
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
6 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
7 Indy Eleven 25 9 6 10 32:31 33
8 Rhode Island 24 9 5 10 35:28 32
9 Miami FC 26 7 9 10 32:43 30
10 Birmingham Legion 25 4 11 10 36:42 23
11 Loudoun United 25 4 11 10 31:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 25 4 6 15 25:49 18
13 Sporting Jax 26 3 5 18 31:69 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 26 14 5 7 45:32 47
2 New Mexico 25 12 7 6 39:30 43
3 Lexington 26 12 4 10 46:32 40
4 Sacramento Republic 25 10 10 5 33:22 40
5 Colorado Springs 26 11 6 9 40:37 39
6 Orange County SC 26 10 9 7 35:40 39
7 FC Tulsa 25 10 8 7 30:24 38
8 San Antonio FC 26 9 11 6 29:28 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 25 9 6 10 32:35 33
10 Oakland Roots 26 8 9 9 33:35 33
11 Phoenix Rising 26 8 9 9 35:38 33
12 Monterey Bay 26 4 6 16 27:46 18
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)