Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevarchi vs Grassina

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Bassano G.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Montevarchi and Grassina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevarchi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Montevarchi
30%
Draws
12%
Grassina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Montevarchi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Montevarchi a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Grassina Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi Grassina
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 11 4
Draws 14 10
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 0.88 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2026 Club Friendly
Montevarchi vs Grassina
1:0
Feb 24, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Grassina
2:0
Oct 4, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Montevarchi
2:5
Mar 22, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Grassina
0:0
Nov 10, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Montevarchi
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevarchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Bassano G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Grassina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 68 / 100
Grassina 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi Grassina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevarchi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grassina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Montevarchi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Grassina's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS Grassina
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.33
38% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 17%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevarchi

(Home)
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1
Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0
Figline
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Grassina

(Away)
20 Sept
Grassina
2 : 3
Scandicci
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Grassina
0 : 1
Flaminia
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
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