Sport Picks
Montevarchi vs Real Forte Querceta
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2023/2024 
Match Events
1'
1'
Lischi L.
27'
27'
Podesta C.
34'
34'
Rufini C.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group E 2023/2024 game between Montevarchi and Real Forte Querceta finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevarchi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montevarchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Montevarchi carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Montevarchi a 41% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Real Forte Querceta Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montevarchi | Real Forte Querceta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 40 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 5 |
| Draws | 16 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.04 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Real Forte Querceta
3:2
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Real Forte Querceta vs Montevarchi
3:2
Apr 7, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Real Forte Querceta
1:2
Dec 2, 2018 Serie D - Group E
Real Forte Querceta vs Montevarchi
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Rufini C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lischi L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52
Real Forte Querceta Compare
Top Goalscorer Podesta C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Masi T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montevarchi 50 / 100
Real Forte Querceta 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montevarchi Real Forte Querceta
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Montevarchi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Montevarchi scored in 63% of their last 40 games.
Real Forte Querceta has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Montevarchi remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Montevarchi VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Montevarchi
(Home) 04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1 Montevarchi
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1 Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1 Tau
Page 1 of 8
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1 Tau
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0 Figline
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Grassina
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
Page 1 of 4
Real Forte Querceta
(Away) 05 May
Real Forte Querceta
1 : 2 Seravezza Pozzi
28 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 0 Real Forte Querceta
21 Apr
Real Forte Querceta
1 : 1 Tau
14 Apr
Grosseto
3 : 0 Real Forte Querceta
07 Apr
Real Forte Querceta
2 : 0 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
Page 1 of 6
28 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 0 Real Forte Querceta
14 Apr
Grosseto
3 : 0 Real Forte Querceta
28 Mar
Montevarchi
3 : 2 Real Forte Querceta
17 Mar
Pianese
1 : 0 Real Forte Querceta
25 Feb
Livorno
2 : 1 Real Forte Querceta
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pianese | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 62:35 | 68 |
| 2 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 44:25 | 65 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 34 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 4 | Livorno | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 49:32 | 59 |
| 5 | Tau | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 55:31 | 58 |
| 6 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 49:40 | 57 |
| 7 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 48:42 | 52 |
| 8 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 54:54 | 50 |
| 9 | Figline | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:43 | 49 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43:45 | 43 |
| 11 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 42:41 | 43 |
| 12 | Sangiovannese | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 30:37 | 42 |
| 13 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 30:33 | 40 |
| 14 | Orvietana | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:44 | 38 |
| 15 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 24:46 | 29 |
| 16 | Real Forte Querceta | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 31:46 | 28 |
| 17 | Mobilieri Ponsacco | 34 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 33:60 | 20 |
| 18 | SC Cenaia | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 29:67 | 19 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
