Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevideo City vs Danubio

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

65'
Sub
Lecchini R. In: Da Silva N.
Out: Lecchini R.
65'
Sub
John Kleber In: Femia E.
Out: John Kleber
68'
Sub
Brasil M. In: Jourdan M.
Out: Brasil M.

AI Match Summary

Montevideo City in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montevideo City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Montevideo City
39%
Draws
31%
Danubio
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Danubio haven't matched Montevideo City's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%
Danubio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevideo City Danubio
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 6 11
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.88 0.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Danubio
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Montevideo City
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Montevideo City
2:0
Jun 7, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Montevideo City
3:2
Mar 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Danubio
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 41 / 100
Danubio 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevideo City Danubio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Danubio has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Montevideo City has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Danubio
1.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Albion
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 7

Danubio

(Away)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol64119:313
2Cerro Largo63217:211
3CA Cerro63035:89
4Liverpool M.62225:58
5Central Esp.62224:48
6Racing Montevideo61413:37
7Boston River61235:95
8Defensor Sp.60334:83
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Montevideo City640211:912
3Maldonado632112:611
4Club Nacional63126:710
5Juventud62138:117
6Progreso62045:96
7Albion61234:65
8Danubio60333:73
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)