Sport Picks

South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Centenario, Montevideo

Montevideo City

1 - 0

Gremio

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Siles P.

49'

Aguero E.

Assist: Obregon E.

56'

Sub

Riquelme In: Gabriel Mec

Out: Riquelme

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Montevideo City

15%

Draws

31%

Gremio

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence

Gremio haven't matched Montevideo City's recent run of results.
54% — that's where the model lands on Montevideo City taking it.
Montevideo City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Montevideo City, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%

Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%

Gremio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Montevideo City	Gremio
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	15	12
Draws	5	8
Losses	8	9
Goals Scored	1.46	1.28
Goals Conceded	1.14	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.06	0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Gremio vs Montevideo City

2:2

Apr 9, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Montevideo City vs Gremio

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguero E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.82

Avg xA / game 0.53

Gremio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74

Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 50 / 100

Gremio 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Montevideo City Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevideo City Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Gremio has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Montevideo City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Gremio

1 Goals Scored 1.13

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13

38% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)

20 Aug

Montevideo City

2 : 1

Tigre

15 Aug

Juventud

0 : 1

Montevideo City

12 Aug

Tigre

0 : 1

Montevideo City

31 Jul

Montevideo City

0 : 2

Wanderers

24 Jul

Montevideo City

1 : 0

Danubio

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Gremio

(Away)

16 Aug

Atletico-MG

3 : 0

Gremio

08 Aug

Gremio

2 : 1

Sao Paulo

05 Aug

Gremio

1 : 0

Mirassol

02 Aug

Mirassol

1 : 1

Gremio

30 Jul

Gremio

0 : 1

Bolivar

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