Sport Picks
Montevideo City vs Penarol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo 
Match Events
10'
10'
Remedi E.
21'
21'
Arezo M.
23'
23'
Obregon E.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Montevideo City have won more games recently than Penarol.
- Model gives Montevideo City a 36% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 20%
Penarol Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montevideo City | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.6 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 30, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Penarol
1:1
Aug 26, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Penarol vs Montevideo City
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Montevideo City
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Penarol
0:2
May 17, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Montevideo City
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montevideo City Compare
Top Goalscorer Obregon E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Arezo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montevideo City 36 / 100
Penarol 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montevideo City Penarol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Montevideo City found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Penarol conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Montevideo City has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montevideo City VS Penarol
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Montevideo City
(Home) 21 Oct
Montevideo City
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
18 Oct
Albion
2 : 1 Montevideo City
14 Oct
Atletico-MG
3 : 0 Montevideo City
09 Oct
Montevideo City
1 : 0 Danubio
05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0 Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6
21 Oct
Montevideo City
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
09 Oct
Montevideo City
1 : 0 Danubio
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2 Maldonado
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3 Atenas
Page 1 of 3
Penarol
(Away) 18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Penarol
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1 Progreso
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1 Boston River
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Penarol
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1 Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool M. | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 24 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Montevideo City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Penarol | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16:8 | 20 |
| 5 | Maldonado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:9 | 18 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 18 |
| 7 | Juventud | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12:8 | 17 |
| 8 | Progreso | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | 16 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 10 | Boston River | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:13 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Danubio | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5:11 | 10 |
| 13 | Albion | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 12:19 | 9 |
| 14 | Defensor Sp. | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11:20 | 8 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 16 | Central Esp. | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5:18 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
