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Montijo vs Jerez CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Chavez C.

AI Match Summary

Jerez CF in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jerez CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Montijo
15%
Draws
46%
Jerez CF
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jerez CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Montijo lately — more wins on the board than Jerez CF.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Jerez CF taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Montijo Clean Sheet 16%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Jerez CF
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 13
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.21 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jerez CF
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Montijo
1:3
Apr 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Montijo
0:0
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jerez CF
1:1
Apr 25, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Montijo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Chavez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 28 / 100
Jerez CF 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Jerez CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jerez CF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Montijo scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Montijo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Jerez CF
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
02 May
CD Azuaga
4 : 2
Montijo
Page 1 of 6

Jerez CF

(Away)
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1
Jerez CF
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)