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Montijo vs SP Villafranca

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Quintero J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montijo and SP Villafranca finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SP Villafranca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Montijo
15%
Draws
34%
SP Villafranca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • SP Villafranca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Montijo Clean Sheet 68%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo SP Villafranca
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.21 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs SP Villafranca
0:1
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Montijo
2:1
Mar 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs SP Villafranca
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Montijo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Quintero J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 41 / 100
SP Villafranca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo SP Villafranca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montijo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montijo scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

SP Villafranca let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Away concern: SP Villafranca has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS SP Villafranca
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
Page 1 of 6

SP Villafranca

(Away)
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1
Villanovense
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
SP Villafranca
1 : 4
CD Azuaga
08 Aug
SP Villafranca
3 : 3
CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)