Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montpellier vs Guingamp

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Mbuku N.
15'
Sub
Mouanga Y. In: Junior Pereira da Silva E.
Out: Mouanga Y.
18' Event
Mafouta L.
Assist: Ott G.

AI Match Summary

Montpellier in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montpellier.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Montpellier
6%
Draws
4%
Guingamp
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Montpellier lately — more wins on the board than Guingamp.
  • Montpellier are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 68%
Guingamp Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier Guingamp
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 2 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 30, 2026 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Guingamp
3:1
Sep 15, 2025 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Montpellier
1:0
Apr 3, 2019 Ligue 1
Montpellier vs Guingamp
2:0
Oct 6, 2018 Ligue 1
Guingamp vs Montpellier
1:1
Feb 17, 2018 Ligue 1
Montpellier vs Guingamp
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior Pereira da Silva E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Mafouta L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 95 / 100
Guingamp 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier Guingamp

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MNT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guingamp's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Montpellier's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Guingamp let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Guingamp
2 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier

(Home)
25 Jul
Clermont
0 : 1
Montpellier
22 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 4
Cannes
17 Jul
Montpellier
5 : 2
Le Puy-en-Velay
11 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 2
Aubagne FC
09 May
Red Star
1 : 1
Montpellier
Page 1 of 6

Guingamp

(Away)
25 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 2
Lorient
22 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 1
Concarneau
17 Jul
Rennes
3 : 1
Guingamp
09 May
Clermont
1 : 0
Guingamp
02 May
Guingamp
0 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)