Sport Picks

France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier

3 - 1

Guingamp

Our Tip

Match Events

Mbuku N.

15'

Sub

Mouanga Y. In: Junior Pereira da Silva E.

Out: Mouanga Y.

18'

Mafouta L.

Assist: Ott G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Montpellier in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montpellier.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%

Montpellier

11%

Draws

Guingamp

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Montpellier lately — more wins on the board than Guingamp.
Montpellier are the model's pick here, at 80%.
Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%

Montpellier Clean Sheet 68%

Guingamp Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Montpellier	Guingamp
Matches Played	27	27
Wins	13	8
Draws	6	7
Losses	8	12
Goals Scored	1.38	0.63
Goals Conceded	1	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 30, 2026 Ligue 2

Montpellier vs Guingamp

Possession: 46% - 47% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Sep 15, 2025 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Montpellier

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Apr 3, 2019 Ligue 1

Montpellier vs Guingamp

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

2:0

Oct 6, 2018 Ligue 1

Guingamp vs Montpellier

Possession: 56% - 46% Cards: 1 - 0

1:1

Feb 17, 2018 Ligue 1

Montpellier vs Guingamp

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 0 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior Pereira da Silva E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Mafouta L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 86 / 100

Guingamp 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Montpellier Guingamp

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MNT Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montpellier's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Guingamp's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Montpellier remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Guingamp

1.38 Goals Scored 0.63

1 Goals Conceded 1.38

75% Over 1.5 50%

50% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes	34	20	7	7	60:33	67
2	Le Mans	34	16	14	4	50:31	62
3	St Etienne	34	18	6	10	59:38	60
4	Red Star	34	16	10	8	45:37	58
5	Rodez	34	15	13	6	45:39	58
6	Reims	34	14	14	6	53:35	56
7	Annecy	34	15	7	12	49:39	52
8	Montpellier	34	14	9	11	41:31	51
9	Pau	34	12	9	13	48:62	45
10	Dunkerque	34	11	10	13	53:45	43
11	Guingamp	34	10	10	14	42:49	40
12	Grenoble	34	8	15	11	33:39	39
13	Clermont	34	9	10	15	38:44	37
14	Nancy	34	9	10	15	35:52	37
15	Boulogne	34	9	9	16	34:49	36
16	Laval	34	6	14	14	30:48	32
17	Bastia	34	5	13	16	23:39	28
18	Amiens SC	34	6	6	22	37:65	24
19	AC Ajaccio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0