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Montpellier W vs Toulouse W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Premiere Ligue Women Stade Bernard Gasset Terrain n°7, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Fontaine A.
(Penalty)
28' Event
Fontaine A.
Assist: Humbert A.
35' Event
Humbert A.
Assist: Kharafi B.

AI Match Summary

The Premiere Ligue Women game between Montpellier W and Toulouse W finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montpellier W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Montpellier W
30%
Draws
12%
Toulouse W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montpellier W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toulouse W come out ahead of Montpellier W on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Montpellier W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Montpellier W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Montpellier W Clean Sheet 16%
Toulouse W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier W Toulouse W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.31 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premiere Ligue Women
Montpellier W vs Toulouse W
5:1
Aug 15, 2026 Club Friendly Women
Montpellier W vs Toulouse W
1:1
Oct 11, 2025 Coupe de la Ligue Women
Toulouse W vs Montpellier W
0:3
Aug 16, 2025 Club Friendly Women
Montpellier W vs Toulouse W
1:0
Dec 16, 2012 Premiere Ligue Women
Montpellier W vs Toulouse W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fontaine A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Humbert A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Toulouse W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier W 84 / 100
Toulouse W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier W Toulouse W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montpellier W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montpellier W found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Toulouse W conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Montpellier W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier W VS Toulouse W
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier W

(Home)
03 Oct
Nantes W
1 : 1
Montpellier W
19 Sept
Montpellier W
0 : 0
Marseille W
12 Sept
Saint-Malo W
1 : 0
Montpellier W
05 Sept
Montpellier W
5 : 1
Toulouse W
29 Aug
Montpellier W
0 : 3
Marseille W
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Toulouse W

(Away)
03 Oct
OL Lyonnes W
5 : 0
Toulouse W
19 Sept
Lens W
2 : 2
Toulouse W
12 Sept
Toulouse W
1 : 2
Le Havre W
05 Sept
Montpellier W
5 : 1
Toulouse W
29 Aug
Thonon Evian W
1 : 0
Toulouse W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 OL Lyonnes W 4 4 0 0 27:3 12
2 PSG W 4 4 0 0 8:1 12
3 Paris FC W 4 3 0 1 9:8 9
4 Marseille W 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 Le Havre W 4 2 0 2 5:10 6
6 Montpellier W 4 1 2 1 6:3 5
7 Strasbourg W 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
8 Fleury 91 W 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
9 Saint-Malo W 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
10 Nantes W 4 0 2 2 2:5 2
11 Lens W 4 0 1 3 4:10 1
12 Toulouse W 4 0 1 3 4:14 1
Promotion - Premiere Ligue Women (Play Offs)
Relegation - Seconde Ligue Women 2027/2028 (Main)