Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monza vs Modena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Birindelli S.
45'
Tonoli D.
46'
Sub
Tonoli D. In: Nieling B.
Out: Tonoli D.

AI Match Summary

Monza in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Monza
39%
Draws
31%
Modena
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Monza lately — more wins on the board than Modena.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Monza here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Monza Clean Sheet 68%
Modena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Modena
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Modena
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Monza
1:2
Aug 16, 2014 Coppa Italia
Modena vs Monza
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Birindelli S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Modena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 41 / 100
Modena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Modena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Modena let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Monza remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Modena
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
24 Jul
Galatasaray
0 : 2
Monza
18 Jul
Monza
4 : 3
Pro Vercelli
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
19 May
Monza
2 : 1
Juve Stabia
Page 1 of 7

Modena

(Away)
28 Jul
Cagliari
1 : 0
Modena
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0
Virtus Bolzano
12 May
Modena
0 : 1
Juve Stabia
08 May
Avellino
1 : 0
Modena
01 May
Modena
2 : 1
Reggiana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)