Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monza vs Modena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Birindelli S.
45'
Tonoli D.
46'
Sub
Tonoli D. In: Nieling B.
Out: Tonoli D.

AI Match Summary

Monza in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Monza
20%
Draws
47%
Modena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Monza lately — more wins on the board than Modena.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Monza here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Monza Clean Sheet 16%
Modena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Modena
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.93 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.48 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Modena
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Monza
1:2
Aug 16, 2014 Coppa Italia
Modena vs Monza
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Birindelli S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Modena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 36 / 100
Modena 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Modena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Modena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Modena let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Monza remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Modena
2.13 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
26 Sept
Monza
2 : 3
Cremonese
18 Sept
Monza
2 : 1
Sassuolo
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Torino
0 : 1
Monza
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Modena

(Away)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
12 Sept
Sudtirol
1 : 1
Modena
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
28 Aug
Cremonese
0 : 3
Modena
22 Aug
Benevento
1 : 2
Modena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)