Sport Picks

Peru

Liga 1 Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Moquegua

2 - 2

AD Tarma

Our Tip

Match Events

17'

Sub

Rengifo H. In: Bauman J.

Out: Rengifo H.

21'

Collazos J.

Assist: Lastre E.

24'

Sub

Granda J. In: Ramirez C.

Out: Granda J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between Moquegua and AD Tarma finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Moquegua

30%

Draws

34%

AD Tarma

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moquegua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Moquegua come out ahead of AD Tarma on wins alone.
Win probability leans Moquegua's way, sitting at 36%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Moquegua Clean Sheet 16%

AD Tarma Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Moquegua	AD Tarma
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	11	9
Draws	6	8
Losses	11	12
Goals Scored	1	1.75
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Liga 1

Moquegua vs AD Tarma

Possession: 42% - 54% Cards: 4 - 1

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Collazos J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Rojas J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gomez L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 36 / 100

AD Tarma 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Moquegua AD Tarma

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Moquegua scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

AD Tarma let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Moquegua stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Moquegua VS AD Tarma

1 Goals Scored 1.75

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	A. Lima	17	12	4	1	30:8	40
2	Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	25:21	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	34:22	33
4	Universitario de Deportes	17	8	5	4	24:15	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	29:20	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	21:24	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	21:18	26
8	Alianza Atl.	17	5	6	6	20:18	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	18:20	21
10	AD Tarma	17	5	5	7	22:21	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	15:19	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	28:30	19
13	Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	21:26	18
14	Moquegua	17	5	3	9	17:24	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	23:28	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	12:18	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	21:31	16
18	Juan Pablo II	17	4	4	9	22:40	16