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Moralo vs Gevora - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Paz A.
44' Event
Bounkwo L.
65'
Perera Gomez A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Moralo
35%
Draws
27%
Gevora
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Moralo lately — more wins on the board than Gevora.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Moralo taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Moralo Clean Sheet 20%
Gevora Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moralo Gevora
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 21 7
Draws 10 7
Losses 4 15
Goals Scored 1.51 1
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Gevora
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Gevora vs Moralo
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Gevora
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bounkwo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Gevora Compare

Top Goalscorer Paz A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moralo 67 / 100
Gevora 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moralo Gevora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moralo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moralo scored in 83% of their last 35 games.

Moralo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gevora let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Moralo VS Gevora
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Moralo

(Home)
04 Oct
Moralo
1 : 1
Gevora
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Moralo
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0
CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
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Gevora

(Away)
04 Oct
Moralo
1 : 1
Gevora
27 Sept
Gevora
3 : 1
Pueblonuevo
20 Sept
Quintana
0 : 0
Gevora
13 Sept
Gevora
4 : 2
UP Plasencia
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
11 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)