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Morecambe vs Hereford - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League North
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Morecambe host Hereford in the National League North. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Morecambe have averaged 1.59 scored and 1.48 conceded recently, against Hereford's 1.55 scored and 1.29 conceded. Past meetings favor Hereford slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 17, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.44) point toward Hereford. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Morecambe
20%
Draws
40%
Hereford
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Hereford carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Morecambe Clean Sheet 16%
Hereford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morecambe Hereford
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 10 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.59 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2026 National League North
Morecambe vs Hereford
0:0
Mar 10, 2012 League Two
Morecambe vs Hereford
0:1
Aug 13, 2011 League Two
Hereford vs Morecambe
0:3
Apr 25, 2011 League Two
Morecambe vs Hereford
1:1
Jan 25, 2011 League Two
Hereford vs Morecambe
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morecambe 36 / 100
Hereford 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morecambe Hereford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hereford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Morecambe scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Hereford's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Morecambe stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morecambe VS Hereford
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Morecambe

(Home)
03 Oct
Morecambe
3 : 0
Darlington FC
26 Sept
Oxford City
1 : 1
Morecambe
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0
Southport
12 Sept
Morecambe
3 : 0
Brackley
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 6

Hereford

(Away)
26 Sept
Bedford
1 : 1
Hereford
19 Sept
Stafford
3 : 2
Hereford
12 Sept
Hereford
6 : 0
South Shields
08 Sept
Harborough
0 : 3
Hereford
05 Sept
Hereford
2 : 1
Spennymoor
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hereford 10 7 2 1 22:5 23
2 Macclesfield 10 6 3 1 13:6 21
3 Oxford City 10 6 2 2 18:7 20
4 South Shields 10 6 2 2 15:13 20
5 Hebburn Town 10 5 3 2 16:16 18
6 Spalding United 10 5 2 3 14:8 17
7 Chester 10 5 2 3 13:9 17
8 King’s Lynn 10 5 1 4 20:15 16
9 Buxton 10 5 1 4 18:18 16
10 Bedford 10 5 1 4 14:14 16
11 Morecambe 10 4 2 4 14:9 14
12 Chorley 10 4 2 4 16:17 14
13 Merthyr Town 10 3 4 3 12:11 13
14 Scarborough Athletic 10 3 3 4 15:12 12
15 Hednesford 10 3 3 4 17:17 12
16 Marine 10 4 0 6 12:12 12
17 Harborough 10 3 3 4 10:12 12
18 Worksop 10 4 0 6 10:16 12
19 Brackley 10 3 3 4 11:19 12
20 Southport 10 2 3 5 13:20 9
21 Telford 10 2 3 5 8:15 9
22 Darlington FC 10 2 1 7 12:21 7
23 Spennymoor 10 1 4 5 11:21 7
24 Radcliffe 10 2 0 8 9:20 6
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)