Sport Picks
Moreirense vs Estoril
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos 
Match Events
12'
12'
Alanzinho
Assist: Assis A.
46'
46'
Sub
Ramos A. In: Carvalho J.
Out: Ramos A.
53'
53'
Sub
Orellana A. In: Guitane R.
Out: Orellana A.
AI Match Summary
Moreirense in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moreirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
35%
24%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Moreirense haven't matched Estoril's recent run of results.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Moreirense taking it.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 20%
Estoril Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moreirense | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estoril
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Moreirense
3:3
May 11, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estoril
2:2
Dec 28, 2024 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Moreirense
2:2
May 18, 2024 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estoril
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Alanzinho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Estoril Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moreirense 40 / 100
Estoril 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moreirense Estoril
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moreirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
Moreirense found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).
Estoril has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Moreirense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Moreirense VS Estoril
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Moreirense
(Home) 16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
09 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 2 Braga
01 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 0 Amarante FC
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
22 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 2 Braga
01 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 0 Amarante FC
18 Jul
Moreirense
2 : 2 AFS
16 May
Moreirense
0 : 0 AFS
02 May
Moreirense
3 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
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Estoril
(Away) 22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2 Rio Ave
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0 Estoril
07 Aug
Estoril
1 : 1 Famalicao
31 Jul
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1 Estoril
25 Jul
Estoril
0 : 0 Torreense
Page 1 of 6
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0 Estoril
31 Jul
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1 Estoril
22 Jul
Alverca
2 : 0 Estoril
10 May
Alverca
1 : 1 Estoril
03 May
Braga
1 : 1 Estoril
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
