Sport Picks
Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos 
Match Events
12'
12'
Secco C.
13'
13'
Cabral J.
(Penalty)
25'
25'
Rodrigo Pinho
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal 2025/2026 game between Moreirense and Estrela da Amadora finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moreirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Estrela da Amadora
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Estrela da Amadora come out ahead of Moreirense on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 10%
Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moreirense | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 7 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora
3:2
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Moreirense
0:0
Mar 2, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Sep 28, 2024 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Moreirense
2:1
Apr 7, 2024 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Estrela da Amadora
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Alanzinho
1 Goals Assists Leader Semedo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Estrela da Amadora Compare
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moreirense 30 / 100
Estrela da Amadora 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moreirense Estrela da Amadora
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreirense found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).
Estrela da Amadora has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Moreirense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Moreirense VS Estrela da Amadora
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Moreirense
(Home) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
09 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 2 Braga
01 Aug
Moreirense
2 : 0 Amarante FC
18 Jul
Moreirense
2 : 2 AFS
Page 1 of 3
Estrela da Amadora
(Away) 20 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 2 Academico Viseu
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2 Famalicao
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
15 Aug
Alverca
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
16 May
Braga
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
02 May
Moreirense
3 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 2
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
