Sport Picks

Australia

NPL Queensland U23

Rochedale U23

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Moreton City Excelsior U23 play Rochedale U23 in the NPL Queensland U23. It looks like a close match. Recently, Moreton City Excelsior U23 averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Rochedale U23 averaged 2.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Moreton City Excelsior U23 won 1, Rochedale U23 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 1, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Moreton City Excelsior U23 and 1.63 for Rochedale U23. This points to a Rochedale U23 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%

Moreton City Excelsior U23

15%

Draws

44%

Rochedale U23

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rochedale U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Moreton City Excelsior U23 picked up more points recently compared to Rochedale U23.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 97%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 14%

Rochedale U23 Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 87%

Second Half Goal 92%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Moreton City Excelsior U23	Rochedale U23
Matches Played	16	17
Wins	9	11
Draws	2	2
Losses	5	4
Goals Scored	2.63	2.71
Goals Conceded	1.44	1.35
Expected Goals (xG)	2.63	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 NPL Queensland U23

Rochedale U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23

Possession: 49% - 59% Cards: 1 - 3

1:3

Mar 21, 2026 NPL Queensland U23

Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs Rochedale U23

Possession: 41% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moreton City Excelsior U23 40 / 100

Rochedale U23 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Moreton City Excelsior U23 Rochedale U23

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Rochedale U23 or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +24.2%

3.03

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Moreton City Excelsior U23 attacking → ← attacking Rochedale U23

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moreton City Excelsior U23 scored in 94% of their last 16 games.

Rochedale U23 let in goals in 59% of their last 17 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Moreton City Excelsior U23 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Rochedale U23 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 35

2.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.25

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Queensland Lions U23	17	11	4	2	44:18	37
2	Rochedale U23	17	11	2	4	46:23	35
3	Gold Coast Knights SC U23	16	10	1	5	42:27	31
4	Moreton City Excelsior U23	16	9	2	5	42:23	29
5	Eastern Suburbs U23	17	9	2	6	37:22	29
6	Olympic FC U23	17	7	2	8	30:33	23
7	Gold Coast U23	16	7	2	7	34:39	23
8	Peninsula U23	17	6	2	9	34:42	20
9	QLD State Team U17	16	6	1	9	35:43	19
10	Brisbane City U23	17	5	3	9	34:47	18
11	Wynnum Wolves U23	17	5	2	10	25:41	17
12	Magic United TFA FC U23	17	2	1	14	12:57	7