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Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane City

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland Wolter Park
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Love-Semira M.
13' Event
Barnes M.
19' Event
Arnison H.

AI Match Summary

Brisbane City in this NPL Queensland matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Brisbane City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Moreton City Excelsior
33%
Draws
27%
Brisbane City
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Moreton City Excelsior lately — more wins on the board than Brisbane City.
  • Win probability leans Moreton City Excelsior's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
Brisbane City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moreton City Excelsior Brisbane City
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 18 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.88 2.5
Goals Conceded 2 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane City
2:5
Feb 28, 2026 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Moreton City Excelsior
2:1
Jun 1, 2025 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane City
4:3
Feb 22, 2025 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:3
Jun 16, 2024 NPL Queensland
Brisbane City vs Moreton City Excelsior
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moreton City Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Arnison H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Scott J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Brisbane City Compare

Top Goalscorer Love-Semira M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Barnes M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moreton City Excelsior 38 / 100
Brisbane City 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moreton City Excelsior Brisbane City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Moreton City Excelsior scored in 82% of their last 33 outings.

Brisbane City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Moreton City Excelsior went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Moreton City Excelsior VS Brisbane City
1.88 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Peninsula18133243:2042
2Queensland Lions18132349:2041
3Moreton City Excelsior18112547:2835
4Gold Coast Knights SC17103440:2533
5Eastern Suburbs1891832:2728
6Brisbane City1876538:3927
7Wynnum Wolves1875629:3426
8Olympic FC18621031:3820
9Rochedale18431127:4515
10Gold Coast Utd17411222:3513
11Brisbane Roar U2318411326:4313
12Magic United TFA FC18411324:5413