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Morocco U17 W vs Ukraine U16 W

World World

Friendly International Women 2025
Mon, May 12, 2025
1 - 2
09:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Morocco U17 W averaging 1.5 xG at home and Ukraine U16 W producing 1.1 xG on their travels. Both back lines have been leakier than usual lately, which points to an open game with chances for both sides. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Morocco U17 W
15%
Draws
40%
Ukraine U16 W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morocco U17 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Morocco U17 W picked up more points recently compared to Ukraine U16 W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Morocco U17 W Clean Sheet 22%
Ukraine U16 W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morocco U17 W Ukraine U16 W
Matches Played 28 3
Wins 12 1
Draws 3 0
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 1.61 1
Goals Conceded 1.71 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

12.05.25 Friendly International Women
Morocco U17 W vs Ukraine U16 W
1:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Morocco U17 W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Ukraine U16 W

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morocco U17 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.95

Ukraine U16 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.16
Avg xA / game 0.77

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Ukraine U16 W • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Morocco U17 W • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Ukraine U16 W • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Morocco U17 W • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morocco U17 W 45 / 100
Ukraine U16 W 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morocco U17 W Ukraine U16 W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Morocco U17 W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Morocco U17 W will likely press early to force mistakes.

Morocco U17 W 59%
Ukraine U16 W 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Ukraine U16 W should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Morocco U17 W 54%
Ukraine U16 W 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Morocco U17 W 51%
Ukraine U16 W 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Morocco U17 W to push more players wide.

Morocco U17 W 56%
Ukraine U16 W 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Morocco U17 W 51%
Ukraine U16 W 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Morocco U17 W 62%
Ukraine U16 W 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Morocco U17 W attacking → ← attacking Ukraine U16 W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morocco U17 W have scored in 89% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Ukraine U16 W concede most goals (42%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 20 shots per game, well above the league median.

Morocco U17 W are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Ukraine U16 W have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Morocco U17 W wants a European spot, while Ukraine U16 W is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 3
1.54 Goals expected (xG) 1.06
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2