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Morpeth vs Whitby

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Henderson J.
44' Event
Bollado N.
89' Event
Chater R.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Morpeth and Whitby finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morpeth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Morpeth
15%
Draws
39%
Whitby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morpeth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Morpeth come out ahead of Whitby on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Morpeth's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Morpeth Clean Sheet 68%
Whitby Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morpeth Whitby
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.26 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Whitby
3:0
Dec 26, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Morpeth
1:2
Feb 8, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Morpeth
0:2
Oct 12, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Whitby
1:1
Apr 16, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Morpeth
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morpeth Compare

Top Goalscorer Henderson J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bollado N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Whitby Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morpeth 77 / 100
Whitby 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morpeth Whitby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morpeth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Whitby conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Morpeth's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Morpeth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morpeth VS Whitby
1.2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.8 Goals Conceded 1.38
60% Over 1.5 88%
20% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Morpeth

(Home)
12 Sept
Morpeth
0 : 1
Dunston
29 Aug
Morpeth
2 : 0
Witton Albion
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
25 Apr
Morpeth
2 : 0
Warrington Town
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0
Morpeth
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Whitby

(Away)
12 Sept
Hyde
1 : 3
Whitby
05 Sept
Whitby
2 : 5
Ashton United
31 Aug
Whitby
1 : 4
Alfreton
29 Aug
Quorn
3 : 6
Whitby
25 Aug
Cleethorpes
6 : 0
Whitby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hebburn Town 40 23 10 7 75:41 79
2 Hednesford 40 22 11 7 62:35 77
3 United of Manchester 40 21 9 10 65:41 72
4 Warrington Rylands 40 18 13 9 59:42 67
5 Stockton 40 18 12 10 62:50 63
6 Lancaster 40 17 11 12 56:45 62
7 Gainsborough 40 16 11 13 50:45 59
8 Leek Town 40 17 7 16 50:52 58
9 Cleethorpes 40 14 13 13 56:47 55
10 Ashton United 40 14 11 15 47:54 53
11 Ilkeston 40 15 7 18 52:54 52
12 Bamber Bridge 40 14 8 18 52:52 50
13 Guiseley 40 13 9 18 46:56 48
14 Warrington Town 40 12 12 16 43:63 48
15 Hyde 40 11 14 15 58:63 47
16 Rushall 40 12 11 17 48:61 47
17 Whitby 40 10 13 17 43:55 43
18 Workington 40 10 13 17 43:58 43
19 Prescot Cables 40 9 15 16 40:50 42
20 Morpeth 40 12 6 22 38:54 42
21 Stocksbridge 40 8 12 20 38:65 36
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)