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Morrinhos vs Tupy FC Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Goiano 2
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Paulo M.
5'
Paulo M.
22' Event
Lucas Lima

AI Match Summary

The Goiano 2 game between Morrinhos and Tupy FC finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tupy FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Morrinhos
30%
Draws
29%
Tupy FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Morrinhos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Tupy FC have managed 1.04 goals a game lately — Morrinhos are scoring more at 1.07.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Goiano 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Tupy FC here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Morrinhos Clean Sheet 68%
Tupy FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morrinhos Tupy FC
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 7
Draws 9 13
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.32 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Goiano 2
Tupy FC vs Morrinhos
2:1
Aug 30, 2026 Goiano 2
Morrinhos vs Tupy FC
1:3
Jul 9, 2025 Goiano 2
Morrinhos vs Tupy FC
0:1
Jun 14, 2025 Goiano 2
Tupy FC vs Morrinhos
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morrinhos Compare

Top Goalscorer Hugo Jose
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Tupy FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Lima
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morrinhos 41 / 100
Tupy FC 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morrinhos Tupy FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morrinhos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tupy FC conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Morrinhos found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Morrinhos stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morrinhos VS Tupy FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Morrinhos

(Home)
02 Oct
Mineiros
1 : 0
Morrinhos
27 Sept
Morrinhos
2 : 1
Sao Luis
23 Sept
Goiania
2 : 1
Morrinhos
20 Sept
Morrinhos
0 : 0
Rio Verde
14 Sept
Morrinhos
2 : 1
Trindade
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Tupy FC

(Away)
26 Sept
Goiania
1 : 1
Tupy FC
23 Sept
Mineiros
1 : 0
Tupy FC
19 Sept
Tupy FC
0 : 1
Sao Luis
13 Sept
Bom Jesus
1 : 1
Tupy FC
09 Sept
Tupy FC
2 : 1
Morrinhos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rio Verde 16 9 5 2 25:11 32
2 Bom Jesus 16 7 7 2 21:13 28
3 Mineiros 16 7 4 5 17:14 25
4 Goianesia 15 6 6 3 18:17 24
5 Morrinhos 16 6 4 6 22:21 22
6 Goiania 16 4 8 4 13:14 20
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 13:13 18
8 Sao Luis 16 3 7 6 18:23 16
9 Trindade 16 2 6 8 13:23 12
10 Gremio Anapolis 16 2 5 9 16:27 11
Promotion - Goiano 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Goiano 3 (Main)