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Mortagua FC vs Sertanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Pais J.
68' Event
Picarra G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Mortagua FC
20%
Draws
38%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mortagua FC lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
  • Win probability leans Mortagua FC's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 18%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mortagua FC Sertanense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.25 0
Goals Conceded 1.63 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Mortagua FC
0:2
Dec 1, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Sertanense
1:1
Feb 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Sertanense
2:1
Oct 28, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Mortagua FC
4:3
Jan 29, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Mortagua FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pais J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sertanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Picarra G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mortagua FC 41 / 100
Sertanense 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mortagua FC Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Mortagua FC found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (32 games).

Away concern: Sertanense has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mortagua FC VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mortagua FC

(Home)
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Electrico FC
12 Apr
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Mortagua FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
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Sertanense

(Away)
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1
Alcains
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 1
Sertanense
16 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1O Elvas CAD26205141:1065
2Fatima26147530:1249
3Arronches Benfica26139427:1748
4GD Peniche26109731:2339
5Os Marialvas26910730:2837
6Mortagua FC26813523:2137
7Marinhense2699824:2136
8Alverca B2698928:2535
9SB Castelo Branco26810823:2134
10SC Pombal26881029:3432
11Uniao de Coimbra26671326:4425
12Sertanense26491323:3321
13Alcains26461617:3618
14Pero Pinheiro26261812:3912
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)