Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mortagua FC play Vitoria Sernache in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mortagua FC averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Vitoria Sernache averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.53 conceded. In past meetings, Mortagua FC won 0, Vitoria Sernache won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.66 for Mortagua FC and 1.01 for Vitoria Sernache. This points to a Vitoria Sernache double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Mortagua FC

31%

Draws

38%

Vitoria Sernache

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Mortagua FC picked up more points recently compared to Vitoria Sernache.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.66 vs 1.01 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 52%

Over 2.5 Goals 28%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 8%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 23%

Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 47%

Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mortagua FC	Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	16
Draws	6	10
Losses	10	4
Goals Scored	0.93	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.03	0.53
Expected Goals (xG)	0.57	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.14	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 42% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 45% - 56% Cards: 0 - 4

0:1

Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Apr 10, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 56% - 46% Cards: 1 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mortagua FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.44

Avg xA / game 0.28

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique Cavalcante

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mortagua FC 33 / 100

Vitoria Sernache 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mortagua FC Vitoria Sernache

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Sernache or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +27.4%

4.55

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mortagua FC attacking → ← attacking Vitoria Sernache

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mortagua FC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Vitoria Sernache let in goals in 40% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Mortagua FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Vitoria Sernache lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 58

0.57 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.14 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vitoria Sernache	26	16	7	3	33:12	55
2	Oliveira Hospital	26	14	8	4	39:13	50
3	Naval 1893	26	14	6	6	36:23	48
4	SB Castelo Branco	26	14	4	8	43:26	46
5	Uniao Da Serra	26	12	8	6	38:27	44
6	Mortagua FC	26	11	6	9	23:26	39
7	Os Marialvas	26	10	6	10	33:28	36
8	Fatima	26	8	8	10	27:29	32
9	Lajense	26	8	8	10	37:37	32
10	GD Peniche	26	8	6	12	34:43	30
11	Samora Correia	26	8	5	13	27:35	29
12	Marinhense	26	5	9	12	20:38	24
13	Electrico FC	26	5	4	17	33:62	19
14	SC Lusitania	26	4	5	17	24:48	17